Punctuated equilibrium in a non-linear system of action

Coleman's equilibrium model of social development, the Linear System of Action, is extended to cover the dynamics of societal transitions. The model implemented has the characteristics of a dissipative system. A variation and selection algorithm favoring the retention of relatively dependent actors forces the system away from equilibrium, while exchange of control, according to Coleman the driving force behind social action, accounts for dissipation, pulling the social system back to equilibrium. This Non-linear System of Action self-organizes into a critical state, as confirmed by the robust power law distribution of exchange of control for a wide range of model sizes. Related punctuated equilibrium dynamics and structural change are of special interest, as these are closely connected to hypotheses on social dynamics developed in the literature on societal transitions

Complex dynamics in a transactional model of societal transitions

Article accepted for publucation in InterJournal 2006Transitions are structural innovations of societal systems in reaction to wicked problems threatening development. In this paper we develop a transactional model of transitions based on Coleman’s linear system of action. The model implemented has the characteristics of a dissipative system. A variation and selection algorithm favoring the selection of relatively dependent actors into the social system forces the system away from equilibrium. Exchange of control, according to Coleman the driving force behind social action, accounts for dissipation and brings the social system back to equilibrium. We expect the Transactional Model of Transitions to show complex dynamics. Power law behavior and punctuated equilibrium are of special interest, as these are closely connected to hypotheses on social dynamics developed in the literature on societal transitions and system innovations. We present simulation results for various variation and selection procedures, interpret their meaning in the light of societal transitions and system innovations and discuss their conformity with actual social processes. Our results show that the Transactional Model of Transitions indeed shows complex dynamics, mirrors some of the characteristics of transition dynamics and is promising for further research on Transition Management. We did not yet find conclusive evidence of evolution to the edge of chaos, self-organized criticality and/or power law behavior

From Urban Façade to Green Foundation: Re-Imagining the Garden City to Manage Climate Risks

Climate risk management evolves rapidly from one additional challenge for urban planning into a radical driver of urban development. In addition to fundamental changes in urban planning to increase long-term resilience, the creation of new opportunities for sustainable transformation is imperative. While urban planners increasingly add climate risks to their menu, implementation of effective action is lagging. To reduce urban infrastructure's vulnerability to heat and flooding, cities often rely on short-term incremental adjustments rather than considering longer-term transformative solutions. The transdisciplinary co-development of inspiring urban visions with local stakeholders over timescales of decades or more, can provide an appealing prospect of the city we desire - a city that is attractive to live and work in, and simultaneously resilient to climate hazards. Taking an historic perspective, we argue that re-imagining historical urban planning concepts, such as the late 19th-century garden city until early 21st century urban greening through nature-based solutions, is a pertinent example of how climate risk management can be combined with a wide-range of socio-economic and environmental goals. Climate knowledge has expanded rapidly over the last decades. However, climate experts mainly focus on the refinement of and access to observations and model results, rather than on translating their knowledge effectively to meet today’s urban planning needs. In this commentary we discuss how the two associated areas (urban planning and climate expertise) should be more fully integrated to address today’s long-term challenges effectively